what we are up against, and a story

I do menial tasks for a occupational health clinic – that means I have a job because other people get hurt at work or take a new job that requires a physical. Part of my job is to attend meetings with the rest of the staff and listen to management talk about how business is doing. Not surprisingly, business right now sucks. Interestingly, the two main “managers” of the clinic seem to think that better days are right around the corner and it is only a matter of time before the drop in business turns into a boom again. I have only had this job for 2 months, so I do not feel comfortable sharing with my co-workers and management that there is the possibility (I would call it a probability) that the best days are probably behind the clinic and business may not pick up the way that they are planning.

So, why should you care? Well, it is pretty simple. The two managers I referenced are not stupid people. They are just average Americans that haven’t taken the time to read about the possibility of prolonged economic contraction or stagnation. It is my opinion that economic productivity is at or near its all-time high mark for the US (other countries may still grow some, but they will be nations of the Global South). It is pretty easy to figure that out by looking at what solutions business and government assholes (there isn’t a big distinction between the two) have for the economic cluster fuck. All of the solutions (more credit, more consumer spending, higher real estate values) contributed to the collapse of confidence in the American Dream over the past 18 months. That means the government and business are out of ideas and there is no turning back. There are no silver bullets, not enough fingers to plug the holes, not enough cliches to explain that we are living through the end of the world as we know it.

This means I understand why the doctors at the clinic are upset about the future prospects of their business. They are starting to see the writing on the wall that we are speeding toward. Just because I understand doesn’t mean I sympathize. If you are smart enough to become a doctor then you are smart enough to realize this wasn’t going to last. And since they should have realized it by now, they shouldn’t act like whiney little bitches when they face the prospect that their cushy little lives may have to require a return to working for a living which they haven’t experienced for some time.

Talking about all of this reminds me of a friend I made when I was in Nigeria. I met Lawal A in 1997, when he was 42years old. He was from a priviledged family so by the time he was 26 he had a law degree, was part of a small law firm with 8 other lawyers and operated an import business with his brother. As a muslim, he had twice made his Haaj and had also visited London, New York and Houston. At 30, Lwal was a millionaire due to his growing law firm and his stake in the import business. He took 30 members of his extended family to visit relatives in Houston, Texas. That same year his father died and as the eldest son he inherited a well appointed estate outside of Lagos.

Then in 1982, at the age of 31, he lost it all. The Nigerian economy collapsed and the currency went through a period of high inflation. When the inflation stopped and the economy stabilized he had lost his import business. Due to his political affiliations, he was disbarred and his law firm was closed by the government. By 1985, many of the 30 family members he took to the US a few short years before were now living with him on his inherited land, along with a few new additions.

By the time I met him he was working as a driver for the American Embassy in Lagos making $275 a month. He still had many amenities left from his wealthy past – a few aging Mercedes, some gold rings and a very fancy watch. Most of all Lawal had a lot of stories about how quickly everything changed for him economically.

The reason Lawal’s story is on my mind is because he never thought all of that was going to happen until it did. Even after all of it, it took him years to realize that he would never get back to where he once was economically. I don’t think that the US is set for such a precipitous fall, but I do think the end results will be similar.

Globally doomed,

mike