The End of...

he United States experienced a brief moment in history that was unique. In the years following World War II, the United States was the sole capitalist-industrial economy in the world that had not been reduced to rubble. Perhaps not in an orchestrated fashion, but this unique position was utilized to transfer massive amounts of wealth from around the world into the domestic economy. Resources were either exported raw or refashioned into produce and sold globally. Agricultural products were likewise exported around the world. Intellectual property was developed along with an infrastructure to support this economic expansion. There was enough coming in that the richest were able to spread it around a little bit and some social scientist that probably did not like the pro-labor propaganda of the previous generation created a new and sought after label of ‘middle class.’

Americans set up a society based on plenty. Plenty of resources, plenty of profits from international sales of domestic produce, plenty of government programs to train and care for those in need. What Americans, and more particularly “the greatest generation”, did not do is plan for any sort of change in circumstance. Over the next 50 years people came to expect certain things and over time what was once seen as a luxury – even what was once unattainable – became commonplace and taken for granted. Someone came up with this idea of the American Dream and most Americans bought right in. The house, the yard, the two shiny cars and all the other condiments of life the norm. We spread out and the extended family was demoted to the people you get together with on holidays.

The first thing that got in the way of the ubiquitousness of The Dream was that the rest of the world recovered. Parts of the world that had always bought what America had for sale started doing for themselves. As America struggled to adapt in the 70’s and 80’s, instead of building stuff the economy kept consuming but started bringing more and more from foreign markets. At the same time, the natural resources that had brought so much wealth to America began to decline. Government began regulating to mitigate the environmental impact economic activity was causing and the decline became more pronounced. Resources were routed to poorer regions that were so desperate for jobs the population didn’t care about the environmental degradation exploitation caused. The resource base slowly continued to shrink…

Meanwhile, the notion of a post-industrial economy began to take hold. America, so the idea goes, no longer needed to produce much domestically. Instead the people could just sell imported goods or provide services to one another to meet their needs. Wealth began to shift to the rest of the world that had started to catch up. The game of catch up helped on America’s end by lower real wages for the bottom rung as incomes around the world inched upward. The ‘middle class’ from the earlier generation became more elusive as good paying jobs became harder to come by. To make up for this, the credit market decided to make more and more money available at easier and easier terms. The people no longer needed to make as much to attain the ‘middle class’ lifestyle, they only had to make the minimum payments. The Dream now had reasonable financing options. To help things along, technology and communications – the internet – came along and produced a blip of perceived wealth for many – this was called ‘The 90’s.’

As technology bubble popped, things crept back to their previous slide. The Dream had to be maintained so even more friendly credit was made available to the people. The minimum payments lowered, as did the minimum requirements. As a result of late-night informercials and ‘reality’ TV shows, a class of people hooked on the easy money of the tech bubble turned their attention to housing. Credit was offered to nearly anyone willing to sign up and for a while that worked out and brought some hope to a mass of people that were now financially strapped from trying to maintain the quality of life they knew as children. All the while, the resource base continued to diminish.

Now stands America, populated by an indebted populace that is ever-more addicted to a high standard of living with no real means to pay the tab. To greet these fine folks as they move into the future awaits an economy ravaged by short-sighted number crunchers at the top of the food chain. The children of the Greatest Generation are now getting old and stand to pose an unprecedented burden on the social welfare programs that were originally set up to help bridge the gap between old/broke/sick and dead. The only problem is the Baby Boomers think these entitlement programs are their retirement policy and the only sector of the economy really left growing (outside of energy) is the portion set up to suck these government programs dry offering goods and services to keep these people alive (as paying customers) for as long as possible. Health Care is the last reasonably bright shining star in an economic landscape of shit piles.

The real problem, however, is that America thinks it deserves to live at the same level or better than previous generations and for the first time in history, there are natural limits slowly impeding this possibility. Globally, liquid fuel production has reached a point at which it can no longer sustain the level of economic growth – and the resulting lifestyle America has come to take for granted – necessary to the fabric of our understanding. The near future will likely be punctuated by drastic reductions in quality of life as most of the population of the world (including much of the United States) becomes priced out of the mix.

This is not about ‘running out’ of oil. If humans are around in 10,000 years I have no doubt they will still be extracting oil. This is about no longer having the transportable energy available in the quantity necessary to be able to continue to live the way Americans have in this, now ending, unique moment in history. This is also about how all of the waste built into The Dream, and the mentality it encourages, will make any sort of transition to anything recognizable an impossibility. The Doom Letter greets you today, in the last days of the American economic behemoth, with the bad news that you and the way that you think you understand everything around you are completely fucked.

Welcome, and thanks for stopping by…