Sunday, October 3, 2010

The End of...

he United States experienced a brief moment in history that was unique. In the years following World War II, the United States was the sole capitalist-industrial economy in the world that had not been reduced to rubble. Perhaps not in an orchestrated fashion, but this unique position was utilized to transfer massive amounts of wealth from around the world into the domestic economy. Resources were either exported raw or refashioned into produce and sold globally. Agricultural products were likewise exported around the world. Intellectual property was developed along with an infrastructure to support this economic expansion. There was enough coming in that the richest were able to spread it around a little bit and some social scientist that probably did not like the pro-labor propaganda of the previous generation created a new and sought after label of ‘middle class.’

Americans set up a society based on plenty. Plenty of resources, plenty of profits from international sales of domestic produce, plenty of government programs to train and care for those in need. What Americans, and more particularly “the greatest generation”, did not do is plan for any sort of change in circumstance. Over the next 50 years people came to expect certain things and over time what was once seen as a luxury – even what was once unattainable – became commonplace and taken for granted. Someone came up with this idea of the American Dream and most Americans bought right in. The house, the yard, the two shiny cars and all the other condiments of life the norm. We spread out and the extended family was demoted to the people you get together with on holidays.

The first thing that got in the way of the ubiquitousness of The Dream was that the rest of the world recovered. Parts of the world that had always bought what America had for sale started doing for themselves. As America struggled to adapt in the 70’s and 80’s, instead of building stuff the economy kept consuming but started bringing more and more from foreign markets. At the same time, the natural resources that had brought so much wealth to America began to decline. Government began regulating to mitigate the environmental impact economic activity was causing and the decline became more pronounced. Resources were routed to poorer regions that were so desperate for jobs the population didn’t care about the environmental degradation exploitation caused. The resource base slowly continued to shrink…

Meanwhile, the notion of a post-industrial economy began to take hold. America, so the idea goes, no longer needed to produce much domestically. Instead the people could just sell imported goods or provide services to one another to meet their needs. Wealth began to shift to the rest of the world that had started to catch up. The game of catch up helped on America’s end by lower real wages for the bottom rung as incomes around the world inched upward. The ‘middle class’ from the earlier generation became more elusive as good paying jobs became harder to come by. To make up for this, the credit market decided to make more and more money available at easier and easier terms. The people no longer needed to make as much to attain the ‘middle class’ lifestyle, they only had to make the minimum payments. The Dream now had reasonable financing options. To help things along, technology and communications – the internet – came along and produced a blip of perceived wealth for many – this was called ‘The 90’s.’

As technology bubble popped, things crept back to their previous slide. The Dream had to be maintained so even more friendly credit was made available to the people. The minimum payments lowered, as did the minimum requirements. As a result of late-night informercials and ‘reality’ TV shows, a class of people hooked on the easy money of the tech bubble turned their attention to housing. Credit was offered to nearly anyone willing to sign up and for a while that worked out and brought some hope to a mass of people that were now financially strapped from trying to maintain the quality of life they knew as children. All the while, the resource base continued to diminish.

Now stands America, populated by an indebted populace that is ever-more addicted to a high standard of living with no real means to pay the tab. To greet these fine folks as they move into the future awaits an economy ravaged by short-sighted number crunchers at the top of the food chain. The children of the Greatest Generation are now getting old and stand to pose an unprecedented burden on the social welfare programs that were originally set up to help bridge the gap between old/broke/sick and dead. The only problem is the Baby Boomers think these entitlement programs are their retirement policy and the only sector of the economy really left growing (outside of energy) is the portion set up to suck these government programs dry offering goods and services to keep these people alive (as paying customers) for as long as possible. Health Care is the last reasonably bright shining star in an economic landscape of shit piles.

The real problem, however, is that America thinks it deserves to live at the same level or better than previous generations and for the first time in history, there are natural limits slowly impeding this possibility. Globally, liquid fuel production has reached a point at which it can no longer sustain the level of economic growth – and the resulting lifestyle America has come to take for granted – necessary to the fabric of our understanding. The near future will likely be punctuated by drastic reductions in quality of life as most of the population of the world (including much of the United States) becomes priced out of the mix.

This is not about ‘running out’ of oil. If humans are around in 10,000 years I have no doubt they will still be extracting oil. This is about no longer having the transportable energy available in the quantity necessary to be able to continue to live the way Americans have in this, now ending, unique moment in history. This is also about how all of the waste built into The Dream, and the mentality it encourages, will make any sort of transition to anything recognizable an impossibility. The Doom Letter greets you today, in the last days of the American economic behemoth, with the bad news that you and the way that you think you understand everything around you are completely fucked.

Welcome, and thanks for stopping by…

Reality vs. The Real World

I spent a half hour on hold this past Thursday waiting for the guest host of The Ed Schultz Show to get to my call. He was taking calls about gas prices, and there was a somewhat predictable stream of calls before mine. Most blamed OPEC and the big oil corps, some blamed Washington for preventing domestic drilling, some blamed the newest bad guy in the oil price story – the dark figure known only as the speculator – while one caller actually had the balls to indirectly blame American culture. The very nature of most talk radio is populist, so of course the guest host wasn’t having that. Working class Americans were just trying to get their kids to school and themselves to their jobs, and they just can’t afford these high prices.

Then came my turn. Previously Norman Goldman, the guest host of the show, posited that speculators had to be the explanation for the rise of prices. I explained to him that it was not speculation, or even some grand conspiracy by the oil companies that was driving up the price, it was worldwide supply stagnation. He didn’t like my explanation and told me that I shouldn’t think like an economist while people were hurting, I should think like a human being. In other words, the host of a national ‘progressive’ talk show was not interested in the facts, he was interested in finding someone to blame. Once the bad guy was labeled, he repeatedly said that government needed to ‘do something about it.’ I explained that part of the reason prices here were so high is precisely because other governments – particularly in Asia – have been ‘doing something about it’ by subsidizing consumption.

The phone call was probably fruitless as far as advancing awareness of peak oil – I did not mention the term. But it was instructive to the extent that all parties including the host were not interested in an explanation that was as boring as supply and demand. I think this is important because this is exactly what America is up against as prices continue to rise. Most people only seem to want someone to blame (other than themselves and their own behavior) and government to intervene and fix the problem. The sad fact is that there is no one person or group to blame, things just are not going to be the same and people are going to need to change the way they consume liquid fuels. Unfortunately not a sexy answer in comparison to the alternatives.

Americans may get what they want in one shape or another in the next few years, but there is no explanation as to how subsidies for consumers will even address the actual problem or how they will be paid for. On this 4th of July weekend, as we leisurely go about our lives, I wonder how much longer this frame of mind will continue to dominate American society. And I wonder how much more suffering we are causing the very people Norman Goldman wants to help by prolonging this way of life in one way or another. I realize I may not seem like I give a shit about Americans that are struggling. In a way I don’t but that is due to the fact that information is available to them (all over the internet now, and in all forms) and they don’t seem interested in finding it.

As always, we are fucked, so you may as well get used to it because things aren’t going to get rosy anytime soon.

A quick case for libertarianism

I posted the response below on a message board after being inspired by the following quote:

I don’t understand the Libertarian mindset. It’s an elitist mindset, which seems to me to say, “I’ve got mine; why should I care about anybody else?”
I can’t say that I know that much about Libertarianism, but I’m not convinced that it’s the way to go.
Maybe you’d care to educate us….
Sallie

Since Sallie asked, and generally I think that Libertarian ideas are misunderstood, I thought I would write this brief explanation of why the federal government should use libertarian solutions to many of the problems facing America today.

Federal Debt and Domestic Policy

The federal government is nearly bankrupt. It is trillions of dollars in debt and spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year to pay the interest on that debt. Although I don’t think that democrats and republicans intended to do this, it is difficult to expect real leadership on difficult issues when a seat at the table is awarded based solely on who is the best campaigner. Instead it is logical to expect exactly the behavior we see in our elected officials – paralytic finger pointing and expansion of ineffective governmental “solutions.” These solutions usually don’t go far enough to make a positive change and only really result in larger federal deficits.

The libertarian solution would be to drastically downsize the activity of federal government by focusing solely on the basic requirements called for in the Constitution. All other programs, if indeed a government solution is the best, would shift to state and local authority. Libertarian thought does not shirk the responsibilities of citizenry, rather it eliminates the hated middle-man role the federal government currently holds. In a truly libertarian society, all citizens would be expected to make a contribution (albeit a voluntary one) and those who do not would be ostracized for their selfishness.

Foreign Policy

The current foreign policy of interventionism and foreign aid is not only a contributing factor to the fiscal weakness of the federal government, but also a disastrous drain on international social and political capital.

A libertarian foreign policy would eliminate our foreign military presence – which does little for international stability and is mainly a subservient arm of big business. It would also eliminate all foreign aid as it most often only props up foreign regimes that are unpopular within and outside of their borders. Libertarian foreign policy is isolationist only in the sense that it is not empirical. The international role of ‘super power’ the US has played has reaped dreadful international costs and done little good for foreign or American citizens. An introduction of a more libertarian foreign policy would result in a great increase in international political and social capital that our diplomats could use to foster better relationships with currently alienated former allies.

When you get down to it, and ask why would it be better the answer is three-fold:

1. State and local governments are better equipped to address many social and economic problems we face today (different situations will require different solutions).

2. The federal government has proven inept and untrustworthy in its many functions. Whether it be FEMA, degradation of our civil rights, our total lack of national defense on 9/11, the rape of our social security funds, irrational and inhumane military operations, subservience (in both major parties) to corporate interests, etc. the federal government has failed the expectations of its citizens time and again.

3. The federal government can’t afford to continue operating as it is. It requires a drastic reduction in size in order to allow its citizens to be better able to face the challenges of the present and future.

Please discuss…

The Victim Complex

In times of great accomplishment, Americans celebrate their contribution. From the lowest rungs of the working class to the country’s elite, when things are going well all are recognized for their effort – even if it is simple lip service to serve some end. When things go wrong we don’t seem to so readily reach for our credit in the failing. Maybe it is just human nature. Maybe we are wired to think about the good stuff and drown out the bad. Whatever the reason, the majority of Americans today do not seem overly interested in talking about what they did to get our country, or more accurately our economy, to where it is today.

Everyone is pointing fingers, to Wall Street, to Washington, to the rich. No one is really saying a whole lot about the fact that we all did this, together. We were either willing participants or dimwitted accomplices. None of the people that are being blamed made us take out loans to finance our frivolous consumption. We asked them for it. In return, they did everything they could possibly do to accommodate our wishes. Now that the house of cards we helped build on empty promises is faltering we have nowhere to turn but to ourselves.

But we don’t, at least not for the most part. And neither do our government and economic inhibitors. They liked the way things were for the past 20 years or so. There was a definite appearance of prosperity. It was all a facade, sure, but it looked good to them and we liked it too. We couldn’t get enough of all of its shimmer. So they won’t tell you it is time to tighten up and start thinking long term like an actual leader would do in a time of crisis. Instead, they tell you what you want to hear and you believe them because you don’t want to think about the alternative.

In the media you will find plenty of reference to this recession and how it is an unfortunate but normal part of life in a capitalist system. But what few media outlets mention, whether out of a sort of lazy ignorance or a willful, fear-based omission, is that we are entering uncharted territory. We have always entered recessions with some hopeful sector on the other side, but there are only two such sectors and neither look that promising – they are health care and alternative energy. We have also always entered recessions with plenty of natural resources to exploit once growth is triggered again. Those supplies are now uncertain and a faltering economy does not encourage exploration compared to periods of growth.

So get out your pointer fingers America, and start wagging them around. I am sure it isn’t your fault, you were just doing as you were told.

We are gonna get fucked harder than we ever have before.

Love,

Mike

The Worst Generation

Don’t tell Tom Brokaw, but I think that if he could give the generation that won World War II credit for all of their accomplishments I should be able to blame them for their shortsightedness. In the late 1940’s the United States was literally on top of the world. The only industrialized economy not left in ruin, Americans were in an excellent position economically and politically. We still had a massive amount of natural resources along with a huge manufacturing infrastructure and the rest of the world wanted to buy. Over the next 25 years, the worst generation took this position, closed their eyes and started spending. We went from a nation of warriors to a nation of consumers in no time flat. And we fucked eachothers brains out.

Now, look today at what is left. Few jobs making something that can be exported with the exception of entertainment, weaponry and some high technology items. No oil for export – those now ‘classic’ cars didn’t fair to well in the mpg department. A network of unlivable communities based on the unrealistic expectation that we would all be flying around in nuclear powered spaceships by now. So we are left selling things made elsewhere to eachother and paying for it all with credit or what is left of our families spoils from the post-war period. So now, as we move into the post-plenty period of constant economic uncertainty, we are left with next to nothing to right the ship after the worst generation ran it into iceberg after iceberg.

We are also lucky enough to be stuck with the worst generation’s kids. They are the bunch that still hold on to the idea that they will get to live out their life even better than their parents. Only problem is there isn’t anything left to finance the life that Dennis Hopper is always on TV trying to sell them. Sure there are some shrewd investors that will surely come out ahead, but when the shit hits the fan, I don’t think I would want to be hanging out with them.

I realize that in this country it is only popular to mention responsibility when somebody did something good, but in this case, they all did something terribly wrong. After changing the world by ending Nazism and Japanese imperialism, they came home and went to sleep living their American dream. The only problem is that we all have to wake up now, and morning isn’t looking so good.

We are so utterly fucked, its hilarious.

The Myth of Deficit Spending

So, there is a common theme in political and media circles when it comes to deficit spending. They all like to say something along the lines of “they are making our kids and our grandkids pay for it” by pushing government spending beyond tax revenues. This insinuates some sort of a plan to pay for this debt that does not exist.

The government has almost always spent more than it brought in with taxes. This deficit spending, it tough economic times, has some economic rationale behind it. The idea goes that in lean years, government spends money to keep things afloat until growth starts back up. This is the half of the theory that is very popular with politicians. They all (with a couple of exceptions) like to spend money that did not previously exist. The other half of the theory is that in robust years, government raises taxes to cover some of their losses. Obviously this is not the popular side of this economic theory.

So politicians of all stripes are guilty of spending a lot of money then rallying around their pet demographic (Republicans like the “small businessperson” and Democrats like the “middle class family”) when the bill comes due and they need an excuse to keep taxes low. None of them, not in any piece of legislation that has ever passed, lay out exactly how the debts they run up will be paid off. And for the most part, they don’t talk about it either. If they do mention it, it is always framed in a particular way. Like they are going to “cut the deficit” (read “not go as far into debt”). Back in the late 90’s, when budget surpluses were actually forecasted (using overly optimistic economic estimates no one really believed) there was very little discussion about using the money to actually pay off some of the debt.

I want to take a few words to mention that the already existing debt which no one plans to pay off already costs the government hundreds of billions (100,000,000,000’s) every year. You see, rich people buy US Treasury securities and every year we have to pay them interest. The scary thing that could possibly happen some day is that rich people will stop buying these bonds or a whole bunch of people will want to cash them in – this sort of run on the bank would make the mess in the financial sector right now look like a cakewalk by comparison.

So government, in order to keep up the appearance of stability. Will continue to go deeper and deeper into debt and will never pay any of it off until it reaches a point at which it is completely bankrupt and can’t borrow another dime. That is the real plan. Whether or not anyone actually admits to it or not, that is what they are doing. The really fucked up thing is that most of them believe that they are actually doing it for you.

So next time you get a chance, thank your friendly politician for completely ruining any chance that your government has at a sustainable economic future. They are doing all they can for you, that will keep them in office. And they will postpone the inevitable cascade of fucked-dom that will unfold upon you in your future.

Fucked as I ever was,

Mike

You don't Deserve Retirement

Dear Baby Boomers,

You have turned the US into a shit hole and you don’t deserve to retire.

Alright, I don’t know if I can back that statement up with much, but I just read about $2 trillion reasons. The point of this post, if any, is to talk a little bit about the short history of retirement. Then I will talk a little bit about the short future it has as well. Enjoy Boomers!

The idea of retirement was dreamed up by some old white guy, somewhere in Europe early on in the industrial revolution. The theory went that, really old sick people probably shouldn’t work 16 hour days in factories anymore. Since their extended families likely no longer had a tie to the land and were no longer able to keep them busy sweeping the dirt floors – and other menial old people tasks – in their family huts society decided to give them a pension that barely kept them alive. Until they died. Over time these old people started to ask for more and more for their retirement. After all, they had a shit load of time on their hands.

Then the politicians got involved and really screwed things up. They figured out this great plan in which all working people would pay for really old people to live. No real reason for this, but it gave politicians an excellent means to sway voters. Remember, with all of that time on their hands, these old people have plenty of time between doctor appointments and funerals to attend political rallies. Now in America we have a whole bunch of old people that serve no real purpose other than someone to drink coffee and take up space at fast food restaurants – and they all cost money and don’t seem to be dying as quickly as they once did.

The problem is that there is not a significant enough economic surplus to keep them pumped full of drugs or keep those $5 birthday checks churning out. No one has the balls to tell them, and everyone seems to think that they will get to spend their golden years walking around aimlessly in malls on someone else’s dime.

Unfortunately, that isn’t going to happen. For the vast majority of America’s next generation to hit retirement age they will be struck by the realization that things just didn’t work out the way they planned. It will force a lot of us to live the way that most of the rest of the world lives – under one roof with several generations of a family.

This sucks royal balls…

Mike